Rutgers vs Virginia Tech 11/19/2024
Published: November 21, 2024
Overall this matchup brought a lot of really bright spots out of this Hokies team. They are proving that even against Power 4 opponents they are able to hold their own in the paint and produce quality looks that are keeping them in the top 5 in the ACC for TS%.
Defensively they are continuing to come into their own. There has been a significant lack of communication compared to what I’m sure they want to be at, but overall they are a present threat to opponents inside and out. Seemingly the Hokies have found out how to silence the ever significant early 3PA. They have also found a middle of possession identity that’s allowing them to significantly reduce teams ability to shoot or make 3s in the 10-20 second shot clock range. However in late shot clock possessions (0-10 seconds) their opponent PPC goes up significantly to 0.86 from 0.69 in the 10-20 second range and 0.67 in the 20-30 second range respectively. They are effective in the early to mid shot clock range. However when you look at the stats by possession and not chance, you can see nearly half of their possessions (46.9% FREQ) come in the 10-20 second range. Noting it seems they can sometimes struggle to protect against set plays. They have given up 55 ATR attempts in this ten second span with an OFG% of 61.8%. That is 4% above league average for this time and distance. It is important to note they kept opponents under league average from 3 in this time span as well.
Offensively there are a lot of great things as well. The glaring issue that I see game after game is the lack of quality 3PAs. This is somewhere that Virginia Tech is extremely lacking. It definitely isn’t for a lack of trying as they have shown a tendency to run plays to set shooters up, as evidenced in the video below.
It is extremely troubling to me to explain why the one away read pass was setup to a non-three point shooter in the strong side corner. Mackie Nelson makes a terrific read, drives a close out and then redirects Kayl Petersen into a great ATB 3PA. Even if the close out drive was the intention of the play all along, when Mackie passes it to Kayl it could easily be closed out on itself resulting in a one more pass to an open Mackie for a corner 3PA.
If this play is set up with Mackie bringing it up and Carleigh Wenzel in the corner waiting for the read pass you open up at least three different possibilities for an efficient 3PA. First one in the corner, second one on the hook pass to Kayl that Carleigh can also make, and the third is the one more pass if the defender is sold on the Kayl 3PA.
This play is a little less important but in the grand scheme of things I think it paints a clear picture of philosophy. Kayl and Mackie switch spots here. Mackie sees Samyha driving and quickly makes the read to slide to the corner for a kick if the layup or floater isn’t there. This is an elite read from Mackie, but in terms of efficiency and spacing it makes way more sense for Kayl to be in this position than Mackie. If Kayl gets this kick she can get a 3 feet or more space corner 3PA, if the pass is made late enough for the defense to rotate, she would be able to look at rim and then make a quick swing to Mackie who then could use her speed from the slot to drive a slide close out. Not only would this give them better looks, it would also give Tech an opportunity to draw a foul with Mackie having a defender on her hip if that extra pass is made.
Looking into player performance, I want to look at three different players individually.
Firstly, Lani White. On the court she brings VT’s defensive rating down -16.3. That is the most effective on Tech. However on offense she brings their offensive rating down -12.9. In terms of players with significant minutes that is the worst on the team offensively. She hasn’t been as effective around the rim as she has in seasons past, but I expect that to change soon as she settles in more. She is not a good 3P shooter. Historically she has taken a very large % of 3s, and just doesn’t make a ton. She has a very pretty and effortless shot, so I don’t think that trend is set in stone, but if she can find more 3P looks in rhythm I think it could really help her.
Secondly, Mackie Nelson. On the court she brings VT’s defensive rating down -7.1. That is really significant when you look at her on-court offensive rating which is +9.6. She really is a two way player. She has an incredible ability to penetrate and find open players, all while not having to do too much. She’s incredibly efficient with the ball. She is also shooting 84.6% from the rim on 13 attempts! That’s incredible. I would be surprised if the staff doesn’t notice her incredible production soon.
Thirdly, Samyha Suffren. On the court she brings VT’s offensive rating up +24.5. That is the most on the team by a long shot. However her net rating is -5.6. That means she brings Tech’s defensive rating up +30.1. Reasons for this are, she is allowing opponents to score on her, and also get ORBs. Both are pretty easily fixable, and you could give her some fairness in the fact she has had to guard some pretty solid players, but at some point you have to make it clear you are willing to stop scoring and box out. The latter she has shown a slight lapse in ability to hold position.
I could see going forward the starting lineup being
Mackie Nelson, Carleigh Wenzel, Lani White, Matilda Ekh, and Rose Micheaux
Sadly this exact lineup hasn’t seen any action together, but I would anticipate a net rating anywhere from +15 to +20.